Twitter in Latin America: Region's Growth to Decline as Asia-Pacific's User Share Increases Through 2018
Internet usage has been projected to rise in Latin America, but it might not equate to social media users in the region.
According to eMarketer, Twitter will see continuous user increases through 2018, worldwide. Twitter's user base will also encounter a growth of 24.4 percentage points this year. With the aforementioned percentage, Twitter could garner 227.5 million users in 2014. The 24.4 percentage does, however, show a decline from 2013's 30.4 percent change.
For 2015, eMarketer has forecast 269.6 million Twitter users worldwide, but the percentage change is projected at 18.5 percent. The trend continues to 2018. Twitter is projected to see an increase of Twitter users but a decline in percentage changes.
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By 2018, Twitter is forecasted to have 386.9 million users, but it'll represent a 10.7 percent change from 2017's 12.7 percent -- or 349.6 million Twitter users for 2017.
When it comes to specific regions, the Asia-Pacific block has the highest Twitter user share, and it will continue to grow through 2018.
In 2013, Asia-Pacific represented 30.5 percent of the Twitter user share, ahead of North America's 26 percent and Western Europe's 18.1 percent. Latin American ranked fourth with 11.3 percent of the Twitter user share, ahead of Central and Eastern Europe and Middle East and Africa, who garnered single digit figures, respectively.
For 2014, Asia-Pacific's numbers will grow to 32.8 percent while North America declines to 23.7 percent. Western Europe is also forecasted to encounter a decline to 16.8 percent, but Latin America will increase by one percentage point -- 12.3 percent.
The Asia-Pacific region's Twitter share growth continues for 2015 with 35 percent. North America and Western Europe's decline prolonged with 22 percent and 15.9 percent, respectively. Latin America's Twitter user share is slow and steady with an 0.2 percent increase for 12.5 percent projected for 2015.
North America, Western Europe, and Latin America will jointly see a decline with their user share in 2016 with 20.8 percent, 15.3 percent, and 12.1 percent, respectively. Asia-Pacific's user share maintained the top spot with 37 percent.
The declines for Latin America, North America, and Western Europe roll on to 2017 and 2018. North America has been projected to represent 19 percent of the Twitter user share in 2018 ahead of Western Europe's 14.2 percent. Latin America will finish 2018 with a percent growth of 11.2 percentage points.
The Asia-Pacific's Twitter user share, however, does not include China due to the country's ban of the social media website.
If China is on the Twitter map by that point, that share is likely to be significantly higher," noted eMarketer.
By country, Argentina is the top Latin American country with the most Twitter user growth projected in 2014 ahead of Mexico's 39 percent and Brazil's 37.3 percent.
The Latin American countries were no match against Indonesia and India. While Argentina, Mexico, and Brazil managed to secure third, fourth and fifth place worldwide, respectively, Indonesia topped the chart with a 61.7 percent Twitter user growth forecasted in 2014. India ranked second with 56.9 percent.
By 2018, Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico's Twitter user growth will drop to single digit figures -- 6.9 percent, 4.9 percent, and 8.7 percent, respectively. As a result, the Latin American countries lose their third, fourth, fifth place ranks as seen in 2014.
eMarketer's forecast was compiled by nearly 400 data points from over 90 sources including Twitter's company releases, surveys, and traffic data from research firms and agencies, demographics, and Internet and mobile adoption trends.
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