Box Office Analysis and Predictions for May 2016: 'X-Men: Apocalypse' & 'Alice Through the Looking Glass' To Hurt One Another
The summer season is underway with a plethora of major tentpole features heading for theaters.
Summer is generally the season packed with major moneymakers and this year looks no different. "Captain America: Civil War" has already been released and should see some incredible numbers over the long haul. By all accounts, the film should near or top the $400 million.
But what other films are slated for theaters this May? And what are realistic expectations for their box office?
Will "Angry Birds" Give Video Game Movies Respectability?
"The Angry Birds Movie" is one of the big wild cards of the month. The franchise has a huge following of gamers, but that might not be enough to help in the cinematic realm if reviews are poor. Video game-to-movie adaptations have rarely done well with critics and box office has never been particularly kind to these kinds of movies. Of course, this is an animated film and that alone could push the tide in a different direction.
Will you love your "Neighbors" Again?
"Angry Birds" could be hurt by the simultaneous release of "Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising." The first "Neighbors" movie was a huge hit, bringing in over $150 million on an $18 million budget. Reviews were solid for that film, and the popularity of the first installment should help the sequel get a good opening weekend. But word-of-mouth will determine whether this film does well over the long haul or stalls after its opening. If reviews are good, then expect a similar $120-$140 million. If reviews are poor, $100 million may be hard to top.
The following weekend, May 25, will feature two more sequels that will likely cancel one another out during Memorial Day.
"X-Men" vs. "Alice Through the Looking Glass"
The big heavyweights will be "X-Men: Apocalyse" and "Alice Through the Looking Glass," both sequels to successful franchises.
"X-Men: Apocalypse" is looking to pick up where its predecessor "Days of Future Past" left off. "Days" was a solid entry in the X-Men franchise, from a box office and critical perspective, raking in $233 million. It was the second highest grossing X-Men movie of all time behind "The Last Stand." Yet, those numbers are not particularly impressive for a summer blockbuster, which could pose some real issues for X-Men.
The first "Alice in Wonderland" film was a huge hit, bringing in over $1 billion worldwide and $334 million in the U.S. despite poor reviews. The new movie has even worse reviews at the moment which will hurt its box office. But Disney's power and attraction for kids could make it the easy winner on that weekend, leaving X-Men in the dust.
Both previous films in these franchises were buoyed by huge opening weekends, both topping $110 million. But "Alice" had the advantage of being released in May, while "Days of Future Past" had no other major franchise opening during the same weekend. It doesn't help that "Captain America" will continue to own audiences over the next few weeks.
"Captain America" was not a thorn in the previous "X-Men" movie's success, mainly because it was released over one month before and was already on a decline by the time "Days of Future Past" came out. But if previous movies are any indication, "Civil War" should still rake in close to $15 million by Memorial Day Weekend.
Both films will suffer, likely leaving "X-Men" struggle to hit $200 million overall and "Alice" barely topping $250 million.
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