When the main players on your team are Lionel Messi, Sergio Aguero, Angel Di Maria and Gonzalo Higuain, you are bound to be among the tournament favorites. But it's one thing to make claims based on paper and it's another thing entirely to actually see the games. When one looks at Argentina on paper and compares it to the performances on the pitch, the results could not be more divergent. Argentina in this group stage has not looked like a team capable of making a deep run. And yet they are headed to the round of 16 and are probably locks to make the quarterfinals based on the competition they will have to endure. But is this team really a contender?

Argentina entered the tournament looking like an offensive juggernaut. Messi is in his prime and is looking to erase the ghosts of four years ago when he left South Africa without a single goal to his credit. Di Maria is coming off a terrific year with Real Madrid while Aguero has come into his own in the Premier League. So when Argentina was drawn into a group with perennial underdogs Iran, Nigeria and Bosnia and Herzegovina, most pundits thought it would be a romp for the South Americans. But then it all started to go awry.

Argentina won its match against Bosnia and Herzegovina to start the tournament. But a 5-3-2 setup to start the game revealed coach Alejandro Sabella's discomfort with the defense. After all, this is practically the same team that endured a 4-0 whipping at the hands of Germany four years ago in the quarterfinals. And they have not gotten better. A 5-3-2 provided the team's backline with more cover, but it allowed for less distribution to Messi. He was essentially isolated up top with Aguero. If you are Arjen Robben and your default setting is to run at goal, then this setup suits you. But if you are Messi and you are used to moving back deep into the midfield to retrieve the ball, then the channels and outlets of distribution essentially disappear in this kind of formation. That makes it much easier for defenses to surround you and shut you down. And that is what Bosnia did to Messi.

After halftime, the team resorted to a 4-3-3 formation which gave Messi the freedom he wanted and also gave him one more player to distribute to in Higuain. Argentina was marginally better and Messi eventually got the space he needed to score the winner. But that result only hid the fact that Argentina's backline remained as creaky as ever. Bosnia-Herzegovina constantly undressed Argentina's defense and capitalized on some poor goaltending from the always-questionable Sergio Romero. If Bosnia's counter were faster, like the Netherlands' for example, then there is no reason to believe that the team would have score more goals against Argentina.

Against Iran, the team started with Messi's preferred 4-3-3 formation, but the results were hardly better. If anything they were worse. Sabella's fear of exposing his weak backline were all but realized as Iran launched one dangerous counter after another. That they were not awarded a just penalty is a cruel twist of fate. That they did not score was a combination of bad luck and bounce back performance from Romero. Meanwhile Argentina and Messi looked lost for answers against a disciplined Iran. The team simply had penetration into the box and Messi was a ghost for 90+ minutes. But with the clock winding down, Argentina's genius delivered an iconic moment and scored the winner.

That late goal seemed to lift Messi in the final group game against Nigeria. He scored three minutes in and then added a second at the end of the first half from the free kick. He looked like a man-possessed throughout the first half. Just look at this second goal off the free kick. Pure class to be sure.

He was not the problem; it was the rest of his team. Nigeria looked threatening on the attack, reinforcing the notion that the Albiceleste have no idea how to defend. The second goal by Nigeria was the perfect display of a team unsure of how to close off the spaces or follow runs. On that goal the Nigerians were able to conjure the kind of passing magic that has been expected from Argentina but has yet to come to fruition.
The real test for Argentina was when the game entered its final half hour and Messi was subbed off. How would Argentina respond without its star man? Not particularly well. Nigeria controlled the ball and continued to expose Argentina's weak backline time and again. That Nigeria did not equalize the scoreline had more to do with bad luck than great defending from Argentina.

Admittedly, none of the teams in this group are world beaters and one would be remiss to give the championship to Argentina after these results. The defense is still clearly a major problem while the offense has been far from convincing.

What happened to Aguero and his clutch goal scoring? It has been sorely missing in Brazil and his injury against Nigeria could be a huge blow for the team. Or what about the relentless creativity of Di Maria, which served Cristiano Ronaldo so well at Real Madrid this season? Messi may be able to pull off miracles against weak sides, but better teams are more than capable of shutting him down permanently. And when they do, what will Argentina do? Unless some switch is turned on and everything starts clicking, it is hard to see the Albiceleste walking away with the trophy on July 13.