Box Office Preview: 'Transformers: Age of Extinction' and 'Tammy' to Compete for First Place
"Transformers: Age of Extinction" is set to win the box office for the second weekend in a row.
The mega blockbuster is likely to become the first movie to repeat its number one spot this summer. "Transformers" will likely make another $40 million, which would be a 60 percent drop from its opening weekend. This year the films that have opened north of $90 million, such as "The Amazing Spider-Man 2," "X-Men: Days of Future Past," have had 60 percent drops on their second weekends. Based the terrible reviews and with the overcrowded market, the robot film will likely follow the same trend.
Meanwhile, Melissa McCarthy's latest "Tammy" will likely open with over $30 million. The actress has become a solid box office draw over the past few years since her breakout role in "Bridesmaids." Last year, McCarthy had two big hits with "The Heat" and "Identity Thief." Both movies went on to make over $100 million, solidifying her status. Even though "Tammy" received terrible reviews, the Midnight screenings on Tuesday showed promising signs. The movie brought $1.3 million, which is stronger than both "The Heat" and "Identity Thief." If the movie continues to play strongly through this weekend, it may even have a serious chance of landing at number one.
"Deliver Us from Evil" should open in third place with $20 million and marks the first horror movie in over two months. The film received negative reviews but has had a formidable marketing campaign. Sony, which is opening the feature in 3,045 theaters, made sure to promote it as a movie by the director of "Sinister" and "The Exorcism of Emily Rose." Both of the latter films were huge hits at the box office and obtained a popular following. However, the studio may face difficulties as this year the horror genre has failed to capture audiences. "Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones," "Devil's Due," "Oculus" and "The Quiet Ones" have all failed to make over $30 million.
Relativity Media could also struggle with its found footage feature "Earth To Echo." The movie is opening 3,230 theaters and could likely earn $13 million. Relativity has marketed it as a family film given the lack of known actors. However, the feature may have a difficult time with audiences as family friendly films are always a mixed bag at the box office. "Zathura," "The Last Mimzy," and "Aliens in the Attic" all ended their runs in the $20 million range.
The sequels "22 Jump Street" and "How to Train Your Dragons 2" could add another $8 million-$10 million to their grosses. The Jonah Hill and Channing Tatum starrer has already made $145 million and could end the weekend with over $155 million. Meanwhile, the DreamWorks animated film has brought in $126 million. With children out of school and the holiday weekend coming up, it is likely "How to Train Your Dragon 2" could end the weekend with over $135 million.
In art house cinemas, Magnolia will open "Life Itself." The documentary about film critic Roger Ebert will open in theaters and VOD and has received rave reviews. While it is likely to get most of its audiences on demand, the popularity of Ebert could very well generate a solid showing in theaters.
Lionsgate's "America" is set to expand into 1,105 theaters. The fictional documentary speculates on what America would be if the country had lost the Revolutionary War. The documentary received bad reviews but based on the solid numbers it brought in last weekend when it opened in three theaters, "America" has promise and could make up to $5 million.
Radius TWC will expand Snowpiercer into 242 theaters and bring its theater count to 250. That will become the biggest expansion for a Radius film since the company's inception. The movie has made a solid $171,000 in its first week and with great reviews, the Chris Evans starrer could easily become a breakout hit for the company.
Meanwhile, the Weinstein Company will expand the Keira Knightley-Mark Ruffalo feature "Begin Again" into 175 theaters after opening last week to exceptional results. The Weinstein Company has made a strong push to capture mainstream audiences and hopes to enter the weekend with more solid numbers before expanding it nationwide on July 11.
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