Los Angeles — As the 98th Academy Awards approach on March 15, 2026, at the Dolby Theatre, Paul Thomas Anderson's "One Battle After Another" holds a narrow lead in most final Best Picture predictions over Ryan Coogler's history-making "Sinners."

"Sinners" leads nominations with 16—the most ever—tying records set by "Titanic" and "All About Eve." It contends in major categories including Best Picture, Best Director (Coogler), Best Actor (Michael B. Jordan), and Best Original Screenplay. A Coogler directing win would mark the first for a Black filmmaker in that category.

"One Battle After Another" swept key precursors: Directors Guild, Producers Guild, Critics Choice, and Golden Globes for best film. Anderson is heavily favored for Best Director (95%+ probability on Gold Derby), while the film also earned nods for Leonardo DiCaprio (Best Actor) and Sean Penn (Best Supporting Actor).

Best Actor remains fluid. Timothée Chalamet ("Marty Supreme") led early after Critics Choice and Golden Globes wins, but Jordan surged with a SAG Award victory, shifting momentum. DiCaprio, Ethan Hawke ("Blue Moon"), and Wagner Moura ("The Secret Agent") stay in play in one of the season's most open races.

Jessie Buckley
Jessie Buckley

Best Actress appears locked: Jessie Buckley ("Hamnet") dominates predictions with near-certain odds, fueled by strong precursor support for Chloé Zhao's adaptation.

Supporting categories favor Penn in Supporting Actor and Amy Madigan ("Weapons") in Supporting Actress, though Elle Fanning ("Sentimental Value") could challenge.

The Best Picture slate: "Bugonia," "F1," "Frankenstein," "Hamnet," "Marty Supreme," "One Battle After Another," "The Secret Agent," "Sentimental Value," "Sinners," and "Train Dreams." The lineup spans action, horror, drama, and international titles.

Conan O'Brien hosts for the second time. The show airs live on ABC at 7 p.m. ET.

Pundits highlight the year's focus on ambitious original films that combined critical praise with audience appeal. "Sinners" and "One Battle After Another" lead that trend.

Upset potential lingers. While Anderson's film leads Best Picture forecasts, "Sinners"' nomination dominance and recent guild momentum keep it close. Betting markets reflect the dead heat.

Other races to watch: Adapted Screenplay ("Hamnet," "Train Dreams") and Original Screenplay (potential Coogler win). Technical categories may reward "F1" or del Toro's "Frankenstein."

The 2026 Oscars cap a fiercely competitive season. Whether Anderson finally wins long-awaited Oscars, Coogler and Jordan make history, or a surprise emerges, the night promises high stakes and memorable moments.

Originally published on ibtimes.com.au