A defunct NASA satellite launched nearly 14 years ago is set to make an uncontrolled re-entry into Earth's atmosphere, with most of the spacecraft expected to burn up during the fiery descent but some debris potentially reaching the surface.

NASA Van Allen Probe A Set for Uncontrolled Re-Entry After
NASA Van Allen Probe A Set for Uncontrolled Re-Entry After 14 Years in Orbit

The Van Allen Probe A, a 1,323-pound (approximately 600-kilogram) spacecraft, is predicted to plunge back to Earth around 7:45 p.m. EDT Tuesday, March 10, 2026, according to the latest tracking data from the U.S. Space Force and NASA. The re-entry window carries an uncertainty of plus or minus 24 hours, meaning the event could occur anytime from late Monday through Wednesday. As of early Wednesday in some time zones, including ongoing monitoring, no confirmed impact reports have emerged, but officials continue to track the object's path.

NASA Van Allen Probe A Set for Uncontrolled Re-Entry After 14 Years in Orbit: Low Risk to Public

The twin Van Allen Probes — Probe A and its sister spacecraft, Probe B — were launched on Aug. 30, 2012, aboard an Atlas V rocket from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida. The mission, originally called the Radiation Belt Storm Probes, was renamed in honor of James Van Allen, the physicist who discovered Earth's radiation belts in 1958.

The probes operated in highly elliptical orbits, repeatedly passing through the Van Allen radiation belts — two doughnut-shaped zones of charged particles trapped by Earth's magnetic field. These belts extend from about 400 miles to 36,000 miles above the planet and pose hazards to satellites, astronauts and spacecraft electronics during intense solar activity.

Over nearly seven years of active operations, the twin spacecraft provided unprecedented data on how the belts respond to solar storms, helping scientists better understand and predict space weather that can disrupt power grids, GPS signals and satellite communications on Earth.

The mission officially ended in July 2019 when both probes exhausted their fuel supplies and could no longer maintain sun-pointing orientation for power generation. At the time, orbital decay models projected re-entry around 2034. However, an unexpectedly active solar cycle — including the 2024 solar maximum — increased atmospheric density at the probes' altitudes, accelerating drag and pulling Probe A downward years ahead of schedule.

Probe B remains in orbit and is not expected to re-enter before 2030 or later.

This re-entry is uncontrolled, meaning NASA has no ability to steer the spacecraft or target a specific landing zone. Most of the probe — constructed primarily of lightweight materials — is expected to disintegrate during the intense heat of atmospheric friction, which can exceed thousands of degrees Fahrenheit.

"NASA expects most of the spacecraft to burn up as it travels through the atmosphere, but some components are expected to survive reentry," the agency stated in an update. Dense parts such as titanium fuel tanks or instrument housings have a higher chance of withstanding the heat.

The risk of harm to anyone on the ground remains low. NASA calculates the probability at approximately 1 in 4,200 — far smaller than everyday risks like being struck by lightning or involved in a car accident. The agency's guidelines for uncontrolled re-entries aim to keep individual casualty risks below 1 in 10,000, and this event falls well within that threshold.

Most of Earth's surface is ocean or sparsely populated, further reducing potential hazards. Any surviving debris would likely fall over remote areas or waterways.

NASA and the U.S. Space Force's 18th Space Defense Squadron are monitoring the re-entry in real time, refining predictions as the orbit decays. Updates are being shared through official channels, though no live public broadcast of the event is planned due to its unpredictable nature and lack of visible spectacle from the ground in most locations.

The incident highlights growing concerns about space debris and the challenges of managing end-of-life satellites in an era of increasing orbital traffic. With thousands of active satellites and constellations like Starlink expanding rapidly, uncontrolled re-entries — though rare for modern missions designed with de-orbiting in mind — remain a reality for older spacecraft.

International guidelines, including those from the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, recommend that operators minimize risks by ensuring satellites de-orbit within 25 years after mission end. NASA's Van Allen Probes mission predates some of these stricter practices but still prioritized safety.

The data gathered by the probes continues to inform current research. Insights from the mission have improved models for protecting astronauts on the International Space Station, future Artemis lunar missions and eventual crewed trips to Mars from harmful radiation.

As Probe A concludes its journey, scientists reflect on its legacy: a mission that transformed understanding of Earth's protective magnetic shield and the dynamic space environment surrounding our planet.

No injuries or property damage have been reported in connection with the re-entry as tracking continues. Officials emphasize that the public faces minimal danger, urging calm while acknowledging the event as a routine — if dramatic — part of satellite lifecycle management.

Originally published on ibtimes.com.au