Tablet shipments should take a hit this year while PCs get more love, but all that will change in 2015, says a Gartner report.

Analytics firm Gartner predicts that PC shipments will drop from 317 million in 2013 to 308 million in 2014. That isn't necessarily a bad thing, however, when looking at growth rates.

"2014 will be marked by a relative revival of the global PC market. After declining 9.5 percent in 2013, the global PC market (desk-based, notebook and premium ultramobile) is on pace to contract only 2.9 percent in 2014," said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner.

"Business upgrades from Windows XP and the general business replacement cycle will lessen the downward trend, especially in Western Europe. This year, we anticipate nearly 60 million professional PC replacements in mature markets." 

While the last couple years have been about the incredible adoption pace of mobile devices like smartphones and tablets, consumer trends seem to be shifting. Factor in the fact that every few years many people look to upgrade their PCs, and the timing is right for a shift -- at least for little bit.

NPD DisplaySearch data confirms that tablet shipments have already dropped from 59 million to 56 million units during the Q1 2014.

"Tablet PC demand in 2014 is being affected by falling demand for the 7" class in emerging regions and in China, where many local white-box brands have experienced lower-than-expected shipment growth," said Hisakazu Torii, vice president of smart application research at NPD DisplaySearch.

"Most major brands have recently reduced their business plans for 2014. There is a risk that the replacement cycle for tablet PCs will lengthen beyond the one to two year range unless brands can develop more attractive usage scenarios."

Gartner predicts that the total units shipped in the PC market will increase to 316 million in 2015.

"The next wave of adoption will be driven by lower price points rather than superior functionality," Mr. Atwal said.

Tablets will bounce back, however, if Gartner is right. The firm predicts that 320 million tablets will be shipped in 2015, up from 256 million in 2014. The number would make it more popular than PCs in 2015.

The most popular device around the world, Gartner says, will still remain smartphones by a large margin. According to Gartner, there will be 1.8 billion smartphones shipped this year, followed by a 2015 with 1.9 billion smartphone shipments. Most of the growth will be driven by the two juggernaut operating systems in the industry, Android and iOS.

"We expect the announcement of the new Apple iPhone 6 will attract pent-up demand for users who want a larger screen," said Annette Zimmermann, research director at Gartner. "Windows phones will exhibit strong growth from a low base in 2014, and are projected to reach a 10 percent market share by 2018 -- up from 4 percent in 2014."

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