Donald Trump
Donald Trump pledges $2,000 'tariff dividends' for Americans, but the Supreme Court could order refunds of his controversial trade duties.

President Donald Trump pledged over the weekend to distribute tariff 'dividends' of at least $2,000 to Americans, excluding 'high income people', as his sweeping trade duties continue inflicting economic pain on working families whilst the Supreme Court weighs whether to order refunds totalling hundreds of billions of pounds.

A $2,000 Payout or Just Recycled Tax Cuts?

'A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone', Trump wrote on Truth Social on Sunday, claiming the country is 'taking in Trillions of Dollars' from tariffs. However, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cast immediate doubt on the proposal, telling ABC News he had not discussed the idea with Trump and suggesting the 'dividend' might simply refer to tax cuts already signed into law.

'The $2,000 dividend could come in lots of forms', Bessent said. 'It could be just the tax decreases that we are seeing on the president's agenda. You know, no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security'.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated the payments could cost as much as $600 billion if structured like pandemic-era stimulus cheques, which went to individuals earning up to $75,000 and couples earning up to $150,000.

While the Treasury has not released eligibility details, the proposed 'tariff dividend' would likely mirror the income thresholds of the COVID-era stimulus checks, targeting individuals earning under $100,000 and phasing out benefits for higher earners. That framework, which prioritised lower- and middle-income households, helped speed pandemic recovery but also drew criticism for fuelling inflation.

A Costly Promise with Political Timing

The White House has not clarified how payments would be distributed or whether Congress would need to authorise them. During the pandemic, stimulus cheques were issued through the IRS within weeks of approval, but the tariff dividends could take longer if tied to trade revenue.

The timing of Trump's announcement appears calculated to address mounting political pressure following Democratic electoral victories across Virginia, New Jersey and New York City, where voters cited affordability as their top concern. The proposal comes as tariffs Trump insisted would benefit Americans have instead become a significant drain on household budgets.

Supreme Court Showdown Over Trump's Tariffs

The announcement also coincides with precarious timing for the administration. The Supreme Court is currently reviewing whether Trump had legal authority to impose his sweeping tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Lower courts have already ruled many of the levies unlawful. If the Supreme Court strikes down the tariffs, the government could be forced to refund between $600 billion and $800 billion to importers who paid the duties.

Treasury Secretary Bessent wrote in April to JPMorgan shareholders that Trump's tariffs 'will likely increase inflation and are causing many to consider a greater probability of a recession'. He urged the administration to resolve trade disputes quickly, warning that 'some of the negative effects increase cumulatively over time and would be hard to reverse'.

The proposal represents the latest attempt by Trump to reframe his controversial trade policy after it contributed to voter backlash against Republicans.

Originally published on IBTimes UK