Primary Results for Latest Super Tuesday Could Improve Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump Odds to Party Nominations
Five eastern U.S. states are hosting primaries on Tuesday and it all could go in favor for Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.
Clinton Hopes to Build on New York Win
Since her victory in the New York primary, Clinton to solidify herself as the Democratic Party's presidential candidate. Similar to New York, the primaries in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland and Pennsylvania are closed primaries, which may affect a bigger voter turnout for Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. Rhode Island, also hosting a primary, has a semi-closed contest.
In Maryland, where there are 95 pledged delegates at stake, Clinton is expected to win by double digits. Based on the latest poll from Monmouth University, the former secretary of state has 57 percent support from Democratic primary voters, while Sanders stands at 32 percent. Ten percent of Democratic voters were undecided in the poll conducted between April 18 and April 20.
"The demographics of Maryland's Democratic electorate are similar to past primary states where Clinton has done very well. However, it looks like that isn't as important a factor since she holds large leads among practically every voting bloc," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, referring to the male, female, white, black, voters under 50 years old and over 50 years old voting blocs.
Traveling slightly north to Pennsylvania, home to 189 pledged delegates, Clinton is also expected to win and could receive another double-digit victory. In Fox Philadelphia affiliate WTXF and Opinion Savvy's survey, Clinton attracted 52.1 percent to 40.5 percent for Sanders.
The same WTXF survey asked Sanders supporters if they would support Clinton if she becomes the Democratic Party's nominee or if they'll vote Trump. Most, with 46.2 percent, of Sanders' supporters would vote for Clinton, while voting for Trump was the answer for 27.9 percent of respondents. Other Sanders supports would vote for a third party candidate (11.5 percent) and 7.9 percent would not vote.
Continuing north, the Connecticut primary, with 55 pledged delegates, could see a Sanders victory. According to Public Policy Polling (PPP), Clinton still has a lead over Sanders but only by two-percentage points. Clinton received 48 percent to Sanders' 46 percent, while 6 percent were undecided in the poll conducted between April 22 and April 24.
Polling data in Delaware, with its 21 pledged delegates, and Rhode Island, with 24 pledged delegates, were not available through RealClearPolitics.
To clinch the Democratic Party's nomination, the candidate must win 2,382 delegates. According to the Associated Press (AP), Clinton leads in the pledged delegate count with 1,428, ahead of Sanders' 1,153 pledged delegates. Taking into account superdelegates, Clinton is 439 delegates short from securing the party's nomination.
"Stop Trump" Won't Stop Trump
Republicans are also voting in the same five eastern primary states. While the Democrats' delegates are proportional, there are a few "winner take all" stipulations at place.
Delaware, a closed primary contest with 16 delegates, is a winner take all state. Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island offer varied winner take all contests. According to RealClearPolitics, Pennsylvania's at-large delegates are winner take all "by statewide vote, but congressional district delegates are elected directly. Pennsylvania's congressional district delegates are officially unbound." In Connecticut, the "plurality winner in each congressional district gets all three delegates." Finally, in Rhode Island, if a candidate received more than 67 percent in a congressional district, then he'll win all three of the district's delegates.
In Connecticut, home to 28 delegates, Trump is expected to be the big winner. PPP's survey with 512 likely Republican primary voters showed Trump with 59 percent of support, comfortably ahead of Ohio Gov. John Kasich's 25 percent and Sen. Ted Cruz's 13 percent.
Traveling south to Pennsylvania, WTXF's poll also has Trump with a comfortable lead with 47.9 percent, ahead of 28.2 percent for Cruz and 19.2 percent for Kasich.
Trump's streak continued in Maryland, home to 38 delegates. Trump received 53 percent in Gravis Marketing's survey. Kasich narrowly defeated Cruz with 24 percent to 22 percent, respectively.
"He (Cruz) is likely to finish third behind Kasich in many of Tuesday's primary states. After this week's primaries, all eyes should be focused on Indiana, as it's expected that it will have similar results as Wisconsin. However, Trump's numbers are improving in that state and the dynamics of the primary voters is much different in Indiana than in Wisconsin," wrote Gravis Marketing. "It's also very likely that Mr. Trump will do very well in California."
To clinch the Republican Party's nomination, the candidate must win 1,237 delegates. Trump leads the GOP delegate count with 844, ahead of Cruz's 559 and Kasich's 148. Trump is only 392 delegates short from securing the Republican Party's nomination.
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